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原标题:DB Today -Global/Macro:Thursday,31August 2017

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Europe Strategy - European Equity Strategy - Sebastian Raedler

    Global Strategy - Asset Allocation - Binky Chadha。

    We expect a tactical pull-back to 360on the Stoxx 600: European equities havefallen by almost 5% from their mid-May peak (from 396to 378). We think this pullbackhas further to go, as Euro area PMIs fade from elevated levels and a strongeuro weighs on European earnings. Our tactical Stoxx 600model points to a localtrough of around 360by late October (around 5% below current levels). This isbased on the assumption that: a) Euro area PMIs fall from the current 55.5to53.3by year-end (consistent with 0.5% qoq GDP growth in Q4, or 2% annualised,in line with the recent upward revision from our economists); b) the euro tradeweightedindex rises by a further 1% (in line with our FX strategists’ forecasts);and c) real bond yields increase by a further 40bps (based on our fixed incomestrategists’ rates projections). The expected drag from these factors is only partlyoffset by a projected further fall in Europe’s political uncertainty index (from thecurrent level of 220to the 10-year average of 175) and a further rise in the oil priceto $55/bbl (in line with our commodity analysts’ projections).

    Sebastian Raedler: Macro: Flash Euro area composite PMI new orders for Augustremained close to a cyclical peak, at 55.7. Yet, PMI momentum – the six-monthchange in PMIs and a key determinant of European equity market momentum– has fallen from a peak of +3.6points in February to a 10-month low of 0(slide 7). We expect the fade in PMI momentum to continue, given that PMIsare still consistent with around 3% Euro area GDP growth, significantly aboveour economists’ 2017growth forecast of 2.2% and consensus at 2%. If oureconomists’ growth projection materializes (Q3at 0.6%, Q4at 0.5%), this wouldbe consistent with PMIs falling to 53.3by year-end. The resulting negativePMI momentum is likely set to weigh on the European equity market over thecoming months. European stocks have already fallen by 7% from their May peakas a consequence of a stronger euro, geopolitical concerns and fading macromomentum.

MACRO HIGHLIGHTS。

    With US growth having picked up in Q2as expected, but inflation continuingto disappoint to the downside, we update our outlook for the US economy overthe next year and a half. Relative to our forecast three months ago, we seegrowth ahead modestly softer than previously, near-term inflation a bit weaker,and the pace of Fed rate hikes in 2018slightly slower. We focus especially onthe inflation picture, where we consider the case for a more fundamental andsustained downshift in inflation relative to our baseline forecast.

    Europe Strategy - European Equity Strategy - Sebastian Raedler。

Europe Strategy - European Equity Strategy - Sebastian Raedler

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